The Impact of Climate Shocks on Conflicts in Laikipia County, Kenya

• Joyce Cheruto Keter

  University of Nairobi

  Author

• Kenneth Mbali

  University of Nairobi

  Author

• Martin Ouma

  University of Nairobi

  Author

This research interrogates how climate shocks (droughts, floods, and heatwaves, among others) affect the level of conflict in Laikipia County. The Environmental Scarcity Theory (EST) served as the theoretical foundation of this study. The research employed a mixed-methods approach, combining qualitative and quantitative research methods to achieve its aims. The study was conducted in Laikipia County, using purposive and stratified sampling techniques to obtain a sample of 150 respondents from a target population comprising the Laikipia County Climate Change Committee, the Ministry of Interior and National Administration, the State Department of ASALs and Regional Development officials, residents, academic personnel, local police officers, area chiefs, and traditional leaders. One hundred thirty-eight respondents completed the survey, yielding a response rate of 92%. Consequently, primary data were collected through 21 key informant interviews (KIIs) and 117 questionnaires. The quantitative data was analysed by computing descriptive statistics, which were presented in tables and graphs. Conversely, qualitative data was analysed using thematic analysis and presented in narrative form. Additionally, secondary data came from various relevant sources, including books, academic journals, government reports, and online materials. The study established that Laikipia County experiences increased conflicts due to climate shocks that create a scarcity of resources (land, pasture, and water), as well as disruptions to livelihoods and forced population movements. This study concludes that climate shocks have increased the frequency and intensity of conflicts experienced in Laikipia County. To address this scenario, a multi-pronged trajectory is recommended as the solution to climate-induced disputes in the area of study.

1. Joyce Cheruto Keter, University of Nairobi

   Joyce Cheruto Keter, International Climate Diplomacy Consultant, is a seasoned International Governance Consultant and Public Diplomacy Strategist, specialising in climate policy, stakeholder engagement, and cross-border partnerships across East Africa. Her work has informed multilateral dialogues on climate resilience, notably through collaborations with the League of Arab States, the Korean Embassy, UNDP, RCMRD and the P4G Summit. With a distinguished track record of collaborating with multilateral institutions and regional governments, she designs high-impact initiatives bridging policy, development, and grassroots advocacy. Currently advancing her PhD in International Studies at the University of Nairobi’s Department of Diplomacy and International Studies (DDIS), her research intersects climate diplomacy, soft power, and African governance frameworks.

2. Kenneth Mbali, University of Nairobi

   Dr. Kenneth Mbali is a Lecturer at the Department of Diplomacy and International Studies and the Institute of Climate Change and Adaptation at the University of Nairobi. His main areas of interest are environmental sustainability and energy. Dr. Mbali has professional expertise in a variety of domains, including environmental auditing, PhD supervision, scientific writing, and publishing. He is also a trained Lead ISO Auditor authorised by the Kenya Bureau of Standards. He has also received specialist Integrity Assurance training from the Ethics and Anti Corruption Commission (EACC), as well as Management and Leadership courses and technical training in solar photovoltaic system management. He is a consultant on environmental and energy issues. He also takes part in community-based initiatives aimed at promoting environmental sustainability.

3. Martin Ouma, University of Nairobi

   Dr. Martin Odhiambo Ouma is a Senior Lecturer at the University of Nairobi, Department of Diplomacy and International Studies (DDIS). He is a holder of a PhD in Peace and Conflict Studies and a distinguished scholar with wide experience both in administration and in the field of academia (university teaching and research) at both postgraduate and undergraduate levels. As a researcher, conference speaker, International security expert, and member of the Diplomacy Scholars Association of Kenya (DIPSAK), Dr. Ouma has also been involved in several consultancy works and research projects both in Kenya and in other parts of the world, some of which are now having positive impacts on the lives of the locals, more so in the conflict ravaged regions of Southern Saharan Africa and some parts of the Middle East Region.

• pdf

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.