Interface Between Glacial Lake Outburst Floods and National Security in Nepal

• Pushpa Raj Bhandari

  Nepali Army

  Author

• Benard Adero

  National Defence University - Kenya

  Author

This study investigates the implications of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) on national security in Nepal, with a particular focus on their cascading effects on human security. The central research question guiding this inquiry is: How do GLOFs impact human security, and what are their cascading effects on national security in Nepal? A mixed-methods research approach was employed, utilising an explanatory sequential design. The quantitative component involved statistical analysis of secondary data and survey responses, focusing on the frequency and intensity of GLOFs and their impacts on infrastructure, livelihoods, and socio-economic stability. The qualitative component consisted of semi-structured interviews and focus group discussions with key stakeholders, including disaster management officials, climate experts, and community representatives, to contextualise and enrich the quantitative findings. The study was conducted across eight high-risk Himalayan districts. A sample of 450 respondents was determined using Cochran’s formula. In addition, three focus group discussions were conducted to gain deeper qualitative insights. The findings underscore the exacerbating influence of climate change and accelerated glacial melting in the Himalayas, which heighten the risks associated with glacier lake outburst floods (GLOFs). These events have profound consequences for human security, thereby contributing to broader national security vulnerabilities. The study identifies significant gaps in Nepal’s disaster risk management framework and calls for a paradigm shift in preparedness strategies. Recommendations include implementing comprehensive risk assessments, establishing robust early warning systems, developing climate-resilient infrastructure, and implementing community-based adaptation measures to enhance resilience.

1. Pushpa Raj Bhandari, Nepali Army

   Colonel Pushpa Raj Bhandari is a senior officer in the Nepali Army with expertise in Peace and Conflict Management, Public Administration, and National Security and Strategy. He is an alumnus of the National Defence College, Kenya. Over his 27-year military career, he has held numerous command, staff, and instructional appointments and has participated in various United Nations Peacekeeping Operations (UNPKOs) in Haiti, South Sudan, and Lebanon.

2. Benard Adero, National Defence University - Kenya

   Bernard Adero, PhD, holds a Doctor of Philosophy degree in Geophysics, specialising in geothermal energy, from Ruhr University Bochum, Germany, and a double Master’s degree in Geophysics/Physics from the University of Tulsa, USA and Kenyatta University. I work at the National Defence University-Kenya as a Lecturer and Head of Program in the Kenya Military Academy. Previously, I worked as a research scientist at Ruhr University’s Institute for Geology, Mineralogy, and Geophysics on the project STIMTEC, and as a Petroleum Geophysicist with the National Oil Corporation of Kenya (NOCK) on offshore and onshore geophysical exploration projects.

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