The Youth Bulge and Multidimensional Human Security

Evidence from Baringo County, Kenya

Abstract

The intersection of rapid demographic expansion and human security remains an underexplored area in sub-Saharan African policy research. This study examines the multidimensional impact of the youth bulge on economic, environmental, social, and political security in Baringo County, Kenya—a region in which persons aged 15–35 years constitute approximately 60 per cent of the total population. Employing a mixed-methods design, the study draws on a stratified random survey of 114 respondents alongside semi-structured key informant interviews with county government officials, community leaders, and youth representatives. Multiple regression analysis reveals that high youth unemployment (β = 0.401; p < 0.001) and social instability (β = 0.342; p < 0.001) are the strongest predictors of diminished human security, while untapped demographic dividend (β = −0.195; p < 0.01) compounds structural vulnerability. The model explains 67.3 per cent of variance in human security outcomes (R² = 0.673; F = 47.82; p < 0.001). Qualitative evidence corroborates survey findings, underscoring resource depletion, youth political marginalisation, and rising criminality as interlocking threats. Yet the study also identifies nascent opportunities: youth-led conservation initiatives, emerging entrepreneurship, and community vigilance efforts signal latent social capital that, with appropriate policy scaffolding, could convert demographic pressure into a dividend. The article contributes to human security theory by situating demographic transition within devolved governance contexts, extending the analytical reach of Social Capital Theory to marginalised youth cohorts in arid and semi-arid lands (ASALs). Policy implications focus on integrated youth employment strategies, decentralised social service delivery, participatory environmental governance, and inclusive political architecture.